New Zealand’s economy may have contracted in the fourth quarter, three months ahead of a central bank forecast, a Reuters poll found, as the market questions whether an 18-month tightening cycle will need to be curtailed.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be down 0.2% in the December quarter, well below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) forecast of 0.7% growth, according to a Reuters poll of 14 economists.
Manufacturing, wholesale trade and business activity were slowing, according to economists. The GDP figure will be released at 10.45 a.m. on Thursday (2145 GMT Wednesday).
Craig Ebert, senior economist at Bank of New Zealand, said an economic contraction would be notable enough to change the starting point of rate deliberations by the central bank.
Source : New Zealand Economy Predicted to Contract in Q4, Posing Risk to Tightening Cycle – Reuters Poll