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Will more U.S. banks fail in the near future?

Photo by Jeffrey Blum on Unsplash

While the sudden collapse and seizure of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVBQ) by the FDIC on March 10 caused a loss of confidence in the banking system, the banking crisis continues to simmer in the wake of the recent forced sale of First Republic BankFRC -7.1% (FRCB) to JPMorgan (JPM). Other banks remain in the crosshairs. For example, PacWest Bancorp (PACW) disclosed that deposits fell by 9.5% for the week ending May 5. PacWest’s stock is down over 80% year-to-date and lost 21% last week alone. The challenge of analyzing bank safety is that a severe loss of confidence can actually cause an otherwise functioning financial institution to come under duress.Weekly data released by the Federal Reserve indicate that stresses remain in the banking system even if we are likely past the worst of the crisis. Aside from the market pricing data and government money market mutual funds asset flows, the bank data come from the Federal Reserve’s weekly reports, released Thursday and Friday.

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